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Terms of reference for Market Assessment for Climate-Smart Livelihoods in Acholi and Karamoja Sub-Regions, Uganda

Project: Strengthening Community-Based Climate Adaptation in Uganda and South Sudan (STRENGTH) project.

Background

The STRENGTH project is a two-and-a-half-year initiative supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark (DANIDA) and is being implemented through a Consortium led by ADRA Denmark, in partnership with Welthungerhilfe (WHH) and the Danish Family Planning Association. The project is being implemented by ADRA Uganda and Reproductive Health Uganda (RHU) in Uganda, as well as by ADRA South Sudan, WHH South Sudan, and the Organization for Peace, Relief & Development (OPRD) in South Sudan.

The overarching goal of the project is to address the impacts of climate change across some of the worst-affected areas of Uganda (Karamoja and Acholi) and South Sudan (Kapoeta East and Magwi), including in the border regions, by sustainably minimizing loss of natural resources and livelihoods to ultimately avert conflict and displacement.

In Uganda, the project operates in Karenga and Kaabong districts of Karamoja, and in Kitgum and Lamwo districts of Acholi.

As part of the project, ADRA Uganda is desirous of conducting a market assessment in Acholi and Karamoja sub region, and in the neighboring areas.

Purpose of the assignment: Conduct a comprehensive market assessment to map and analyze existing markets and value chains for climate-smart livelihoods (climate-smart agriculture, Non-Timber Forest Products, Farmer Market Schools outputs, and related climate-smart livelihoods). The assessment aims to identify demand, price dynamics, market access constraints, value chain actors, enabling environment, and opportunities to enhance livelihoods, and inform production planning, and support market linkages.

Objectives

1. Map current and potential markets for key climate-smart livelihood products in Acholi and Karamoja sub regions, and other neighbouring markets.

2. Characterize demand side (consumers, institutions, retailers, aggregators, processors) and supply side (farmers, groups, traders, input suppliers).

3. Identify value chain actors, roles, power dynamics, and intermediation costs.

4. Assess price trends, seasonality, quality standards, certification requirements, and certification/labeling feasibility.

5. Assess access to finance, credit, storage, and transport constraints affecting market participation.

6. Analyze market risks (conflict sensitivity, climate variability, price volatility) and mitigation options.

7. Provide actionable recommendations and a practical market-entry/scale-up plan for STRENGTH-supported products and farmers.

Scope of Work (Activities)

1. Inception and Design (2 days)

o Review project documents and prior market assessments in the region.

o Develop a detailed data collection plan, sampling framework, and data collection tools (questionnaires, interview guides, focus group discussion guides).

o Prepare an inception report (structure and plan for fieldwork, including ethical considerations and risk assessment) for presentation to the STRENGTH project team and Desk officer

2. Market Mapping and Value Chain Analysis (Days 4 days)

o Identify and map key value chains relevant to climate-smart livelihoods in Acholi and Karamoja (e.g., maize, beans, sorghum/millet, legumes, drought-tolerant varieties, NTFPs, agroforestry products, seeds, inputs).

o Profile market actors: farmers, farmer groups, aggregators, traders, processors, wholesalers, retailers, exporters, financial service providers, input suppliers, extension agents.

o Assess market size, capacity, demand elasticity, seasonality, price formation, and margins along the chain.

o Evaluate quality/standards requirements and certification feasibility.

3. Market Demand and Access Analysis (2 days)

o Assess end-market demand (households, institutions, NGOs, government programs) and willingness to pay for climate-smart products.

o Identify potential buyers and procurement processes, preferred product forms, and packaging requirements.

o Review constraints to market access (transport, storage, road access, security, seasonal fluctuations).

4. Enabling Environment and Risk Assessment (Days 2 days)

o Review policies, regulatory requirements, and enabling environment (grading/standards, labeling, certifications, phytosanitary requirements).

o Assess risk factors: climate variability, conflict sensitivity, price volatility, market information access, and shocks/disruption scenarios.

o Map opportunities for public-private partnerships and potential donors or market enablers.

5. Recommendations and Action Plan (2 days)

o Develop practical recommendations for STRENGTH project components (production planning, Farmer Market Schools integration, linkages to markets, and NTFP support).

6. Reporting and Dissemination (2 days)

o Draft Market Assessment Report (MAR) with executive summary, methodology, findings, and recommendations.

o Prepare 1–2 short policy briefs or summary notes for the STRENGTH field team and project beneficiaries

o Present key findings to ADRA Uganda, and later to other stakeholders; incorporate feedback.

Methodology and Data Collection

· Mixed methods: desk review, key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs), market observations, retailer and trader interviews, and price trend analysis using secondary data.

· Sampling: purposive sampling of sub-regions, markets, and representative value chain actors; target sample size to be finalized in the inception report.

· Tools: standardized interview guides, consent processes, data quality checks; consider digital data collection where feasible.

· Ethics: ensure informed consent, confidentiality, cultural sensitivity, and gender-responsive approaches.

Deliverables and Outputs

1. Inception Report (IR) – 2–3 pages detailing methodology, data collection plan, sampling, tools, timeline, and risk mitigation.

2. Market Assessment Report (MAR) – 25–40 pages including:

o Executive summary (1–2 pages)

o country/region context and scope

o Methodology and limitations

o Market mapping and value chain analysis (Acholi and Karamoja)

o Demand, supply, access, and price analyses

o Enabling environment and risk assessment

o Recommendations, implementation plan, and annexes (data tables, interview checklists)

3. Summary Notes and Presentations – 2–3 briefing notes for ADRA Uganda STRENGTH project team and a 10–15 slide presentation for stakeholder dissemination.

Timeline and Schedule (15 November – 15 December 2025)

· Week 1 (Nov 10–14): Inception and planning; IR development; stakeholder mapping; protocol finalization.

· Week 2 (Nov 17–21): Field data collection in fixed market sites and communities in Acholi and Karamoja; KIIs/FGDs conducted.

· Week 3 (Nov 24–28): Continued data collection; initial data cleaning; interim synthesis.

· Week 4 (Dec 1–5): Data analysis; MAR drafting; validation with field teams.

· Week 5 (Dec 8–10): Finalize MAR; submission of deliverables; stakeholder presentation and debrief.

Geographic Scope

· Uganda, Acholi sub-region (Kitgum, Lamwo, Gulu, Pader, and neighboring districts) and Karamoja sub-region (Kaabong, Karenga, Abim, Moroto, Kotido). Include key cities next to these regions, including Kampala and Mbale.

· Focus on local markets and cross-border considerations where relevant to competitiveness and trade.

Expertise and Qualifications (Consultant Profile)

· Advanced degree in Agricultural Economics, Development Studies, Rural Marketing, Supply Chain Management, or related field.

· Demonstrated experience conducting market assessments in Uganda, with preference for climate-smart livelihoods and value chain analysis.

· Strong quantitative and qualitative research skills; experience with price analysis, market mapping, and data visualization.

· Familiarity with Ugandan market dynamics, rural livelihoods, and gender-sensitive approaches.

· Fluency in English; knowledge of any of the local languages (Acholi or Karimojong) is an asset.

· Experience working with the private sector, NGOs, government agencies, and donor-funded programs; ability to interact with diverse stakeholders, including farmers, traders, and policymakers.

· Ability to deliver on tight timelines with high-quality reports and actionable recommendations.

Logistics and Support

· Location: Fieldwork in Acholi and Karamoja; potential short trips to key markets and cross-border interfaces; and in neighboring cities, including Kampala and Mbale

· Team Composition: One lead consultant (market systems/analysis), supported by a field enumerator(s) and a part-time data analyst (if needed).

· Coordination: Regular communication with ADRA Uganda STRENGTH project team; share drafts for feedback; ensure alignment with project guidelines.

· Logistics: The required logistics to be included in the proposal from the candidates.

Reporting and Accountability

· The consultant will report to ADRA Uganda’s STRENGTH project manager and coordinate with STRENGTH project coordinator.

· Deliverables will be reviewed for quality, evidence base, and alignment with STRENGTH project objectives.

· All outputs will be property of ADRA Uganda and STRENGTH project; data handling in line with donor and organizational data protection policies.

Budget and Payment

· Please provide a proposed budget with daily rates, estimated travel costs, local accommodation, and any other direct costs. Include a brief justification for major line items.

· Payment schedule: typically milestone-based (25% on inception/IR approval, 50% upon MAR draft submission and internal clearance, 25% on final MAR and presentations).

Criteria for Selection

· Demonstrated experience with market assessments in Uganda.

· Track record of delivering timely, high-quality market analysis for development projects.

· Strong methodological approach, clear data collection tools, and analytical plan.

· Ability to work with a multi-stakeholder team and communicate findings clearly to non-technical audiences.

· Availability to complete the engagement within the 10 November – 10 December 2025 window.

Confidentiality and Ethics

· All data collected must be treated as confidential; consent procedures must be followed; reporting should anonymize sensitive information where required.

· Adherence to ADRA Uganda’s safeguarding and ethical guidelines.

Submission of a proposal

The proposal should be a 6–8 page technical document detailing objectives, methodology, a detailed timeline, team roles, relevant experience with contact references, sample data collection tools, a justified budget, and a risk mitigation plan. Include CVs of leads and key members, plus your portfolio. Please send your proposal to [email protected], and copy [email protected].

Submit before 3rd November 2025

Terms of Reference (ToRs) for Endline Impact Evaluation -PASSAGE

Project Title: Promoting Self-Reliance Among Vulnerable School-Going Children and Their Households (PASSAGE) in Acholi Sub-Region, Amuru District, Uganda

ADRA UGANDA

Project Evaluation Period: January 2023-December 2025 (3 Years)

Consultancy period: 3^rd to 14^th November 2025

Evaluation Team: External Consultant(s)/Evaluation Team

1. Background

This project aims to improve the economic livelihoods, food security, and access to education for vulnerable school-going children and their households in the Acholi sub-region, Amuru District, Uganda. The project emphasizes gender equality, financial literacy, and climate-smart agriculture, reaching 1,105 direct beneficiaries (including 500 students from 10 schools, 10 parent clubs with 50 parents each, 40 teachers, and 10 CBOs) and 6,770 indirect beneficiaries.

The mid-term evaluation is intended to assess the progress toward achieving project outcomes, identifying key lessons, and providing recommendations for the remainder of the implementation period.

2. Purpose and Objectives

The primary purpose of the Endline impact evaluation is to assess the effectiveness, relevance, efficiency, and sustainability of the project’s implementation. Specific objectives include:

• Assessing progress against project indicators as outlined in the results matrix.
• Evaluating the effectiveness of strategies used to enhance economic self-reliance among vulnerable children and their families.
• Documenting the project impact in creating access to education and sustainable income generation and PASSAGE cultures among the pupils, Parents, and CBOs.
• Identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges encountered during project implementation.
• Providing actionable recommendations for improving implementation in the next phase of the project.

3. Evaluation Scope and Key Questions

Scope:

The evaluation will cover all project components, including:

• Economic empowerment of vulnerable children and their mothers.
• Access to quality primary education, especially for girls and children with disabilities.
• Household food security and climate-smart agricultural practices.
• Strengthening savings culture and financial literacy.
• Community-based initiatives, including permaculture clubs and gender-responsive leadership.

Key Evaluation Questions:

1. Relevance: To what extent do the project interventions address the needs of vulnerable children and their households?
2. Effectiveness: How well has the project achieved its intended outcomes, particularly in improving livelihoods, education access, and food security?
3. Efficiency: Were resources used efficiently to deliver project outcomes?
4. Impact: What notable changes have occurred in the lives of beneficiaries because of project interventions?
5. Sustainability: Are the project benefits likely to continue beyond the implementation period?

4. Methodology

The evaluation will adopt a mixed-methods approach, including:

• Desk Review: Analysis of project reports, baseline data, midterm evaluation, financial literacy reports, and other relevant documentation.
• Key Informant Interviews (KIIs): Engagement with project staff, government officials, teachers, local leaders, and other stakeholders.
• Focus Group Discussions (FGDs): Sessions with direct beneficiaries, including vulnerable school-going children, mothers, and community-based organizations (CBOs).
• Household Surveys/Teacher/student/parent surveys: Structured interviews with a sample of project beneficiaries to assess changes in income, savings, food security, and education access.
• Observations: Site visits to assess evidence of climate-smart agricultural practices, school enrollment trends, and financial literacy initiatives.

5. Deliverables

The consultant(s) will be responsible for delivering the following outputs:

1. Inception Report: Detailed evaluation plan, methodology, and tools.
2. Draft Impact Evaluation Report: Summary of findings, analysis, and preliminary recommendations.
3. Validation Workshop: Presentation of findings to stakeholders for feedback.
4. Final Impact Evaluation Report: Comprehensive document with final recommendations.
5. 5 Documented Success stories.
6. A 2-page summary brief and PowerPoint slides of the impact evaluation report to share with stakeholders
7. Presenting findings on the stakeholder dissemination workshop.

6. Timeline

7. Qualifications of Consultant(s)

The consultant(s) should have:

• A master’s degree in Monitoring & Evaluation, Social Sciences, Development Studies, Education, or related fields.
• A minimum of 5 years of experience in project evaluations, particularly in livelihoods, education, and food security sectors.
• Strong skills in data collection, statistical analysis, and qualitative research methods.
• Experience in working with vulnerable groups, including children, women, and persons with disabilities.
• Knowledge of the Ugandan education and economic development context.

8. Budget and Logistics

The consultant will submit a financial proposal detailing all associated costs, including consultancy fees, travel, accommodation, and data collection expenses. ADRA Uganda will provide necessary support for accessing project sites and stakeholders.

9. Ethical Considerations

The evaluation will adhere to ethical research principles, including:

• Obtaining informed consent from all participants.
• Ensuring confidentiality and anonymity of respondents.
• Avoiding any form of harm or bias in data collection and reporting.

10. Reporting and Dissemination

The final evaluation report will be shared with project stakeholders, including donors, government agencies, and implementing partners. A summary of a 2-page brief will also be developed for wider dissemination.

11. Application

Interested and eligible candidates should submit:

• A CV (maximum 2 pages) outlining the profile of the consultant
• A cover letter highlighting their relevant experience for this assignment and indicating how the

The candidate meets the requirements

• Up to two examples of their work on a previous similar assignment (evaluation or research

reports)

• Two references
• An inception Report
• A work plan (time and activity schedule) and budget for the assignment, including the estimated

number of days and daily rate (in Uganda shillings).

• Detailed cost proposal in Uganda Shillings, including the number of days you would

spend on the assignment and daily fees (budget should cover all costs in-country as well,

including local research teams and logistical costs)

The following criteria will be used to evaluate the applications:

• The experience and competence of the consultant in relation to the Terms of Reference
• The availability to carry out the assignment in the proposed timeframe of 2 weeks from the start of the exercise.
• The budget for the assignment

Submit complete applications by email to: [email protected], [email protected], and copy; [email protected], and [email protected].

For further details or to apply, please contact: +256774479718 or +256703817000 or +256785056854